There is no other question that had caused a huge uproar in USA. The question was posted to
Parade magazine's "Ask Marilyn". Who is that Marilyn and what was the question you may ask. Well, Marilyn is Marilyn vos Savant, famous for being listed for years in
Guiness World Records Hall of Fame as the person with the world's highest recorded IQ (228). And here is the question :
Suppose the contestants of a game show are given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. After the contestant pick a door, the host, who knows what's behind all the doors, opens one of the unchosen doors, which always reveals a goat. He then says to the contestant, "Do you want to switch to the other unopened door?" Is it to the contestant's advantage to make the switch?
At face value, this appears to be a silly question. After all, there are only two choices left, it's either open the door with a car behind or a goat instead. It's fifty-fifty isn't it? However, Marilyn said that it's better to switch.
Her response caused an uproar, it brought an avalance of mail, 10,000 by her estimate. Well, what's the big deal about it? Almost 1,000 PhD holders, many are Maths Professor joined the uproar. Agreeing that there should be 50/50 chance no matter whether the participant decide to switch the door.
However, computer simulation was in favour of Marilyn, hundred of trials that come out 2 to 1 in favor of switching. Those PhD holders were fooled. So, why switching the door give the contestant an advantage?
-Mit freundlichem Gruss und, Heil Schrödingers Katze!
